Cardiff MU 3-2 Colwyn Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Welsh Cup, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.29
Over 2.5
50%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.66
No
55%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.2pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.9pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
40%
+9.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
60%
-9.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.3pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Colwyn Bay EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
359 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff MU
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Colwyn Bay
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
30.09.2023 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 2-2 HT 1-1 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
26.08.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 1-0 HT 1-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
16.10.2021 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 1-0 HT 1-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GALWK
POST-MATCH Cardiff MU vs Colwyn Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cardiff MU nicked a narrow win over Colwyn Bay 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Cardiff MU as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cardiff MU and 1.00 for Colwyn Bay.

What was the final score of Cardiff MU vs Colwyn Bay?

Cardiff MU 3-2 Colwyn Bay in the Wales - Welsh Cup on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff MU vs Colwyn Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cardiff MU win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Cardiff MU 54%, draw 25%, Colwyn Bay 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cardiff MU) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cardiff MU) ✗ BTTS No
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