Deportivo Cali 3-2 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
37%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
10%
1/X
11%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.9pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.7pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-3.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.2pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Cali EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 45%
-9% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.03/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.09
-17% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +17%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
250 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
18.5 Crosses 14.3
3.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Cali
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.37 xG 1.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
232 Passes 326
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 4
07.08.2023 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
13.02.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali KOL
19.09.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali KOL
22.03.2022 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali 3-3 HT 3-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
09.12.2021 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-2 HT 1-2 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali KOL
05.12.2021 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali 3-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Cali
3-2
AWAY Atletico Nacional
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 27
3 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 12
252 Passes 314
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
POST-MATCH Deportivo Cali vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Cali nicked a narrow win over Atletico Nacional 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (32% / 31% / 37%) promised a tight game; Deportivo Cali found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Cali had 44% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 56%, shots finished 8-27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Cali had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Deportivo Cali and 1.67 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Deportivo Cali vs Atletico Nacional?

Deportivo Cali 3-2 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Cali vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Cali 32%, draw 31%, Atletico Nacional 37%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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