Mazatlan 2-2 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒06:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
3.29
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
34%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.9
Over 2.5
43%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.33
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.47
6+ Goals
9%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 32% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
27%
+11.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
34%
Away Win
47%
-12.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
49%
+8.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
51%
-8.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 50%
+3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
1.19/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/0.96
+7% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +46%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
266 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
17.0 Crosses 17.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.86 xG 1.08
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
265 Passes 393
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-3 HT 0-2 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
30.04.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 4-1 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
06.08.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
10.01.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-0 HT 3-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
06.11.2021 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
07.03.2021 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 1-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
2-2
AWAY Guadalajara
1.15 xG 1.45
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 2
390 Passes 302
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 25
30 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mazatlan and Guadalajara shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mazatlan had 56% of the ball to Guadalajara's 44%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.15 to 1.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Mazatlan and 1.83 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Guadalajara?

Mazatlan 2-2 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mazatlan win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 38%, draw 27%, Guadalajara 34%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mazatlan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
17 Feb 2024
04:00 Queretaro vs Necaxa Analysis →