Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 Feb 2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok
1-2 HT 0-2
Lech Poznan
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lech Poznan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.86
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.99
6+ Goals
10%
18.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 31% vs market 28.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.27
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
20%
4.87
X/2
9%
6.09
X/X
8%
4.14
2/1
10%
28.5
2/2
11%
4.48
2/X
12%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
41%
+4.8pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
27%
Away Win
31%
-3.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Lech Poznan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -3%
1.61/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.68
+44% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
328 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 74%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
17.7 Crosses 14.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lech Poznan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.05 xG 1.65
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
266 Passes 445
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.10.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-3 HT 2-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
27.05.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
12.11.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
19.03.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
24.09.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
20.03.2021 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-3 HT 2-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL

Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 Lech Poznan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
1-2
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.33 xG 1.05
67% Ball Possession 33%
25 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
468 Passes 203
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
40 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan squeezed past Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Jagiellonia Bialystok at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 67% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 33%, shots finished 25-6, expected goals 1.33 to 1.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 2.00 for Lech Poznan.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lech Poznan?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 46%, draw 27%, Lech Poznan 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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