Al Nassr 2-1 Al Fateh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.3
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
21%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
3.59
Over 2.5
59%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
8.64
2-3 Goals
37%
2.37
4-5 Goals
28%
2.33
6+ Goals
14%
3.84
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
73%
-14.3pp
21%
Draw
16%
+4.9pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+9.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
24%
+16.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
76%
-16.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.9pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Fateh EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +27%
2.07/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/2.18
+16% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / +24%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
434 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 77%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
22.0 Crosses 14.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Nassr
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Al Fateh
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.86 xG 0.87
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
429 Passes 292
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
37 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2023 Al Fateh Al Fateh 0-5 HT 0-2 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
31.05.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 3-0 HT 1-0 Al Fateh Al Fateh SUUD
03.02.2023 Al Fateh Al Fateh 2-2 HT 1-1 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
27.06.2022 Al Nassr Al Nassr 2-1 HT 1-1 Al Fateh Al Fateh SUUD
01.01.2022 Al Fateh Al Fateh 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
09.02.2021 Al Fateh Al Fateh 1-1 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Nassr
2-1
AWAY Al Fateh
1.75 xG 1.16
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
525 Passes 230
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
47 Box Touches 26
27 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Al Nassr vs Al Fateh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr squeezed past Al Fateh 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Nassr as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Al Nassr had 66% of the ball to Al Fateh's 34%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 1.75 to 1.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Nassr had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Al Nassr and 0.67 for Al Fateh.

What was the final score of Al Nassr vs Al Fateh?

Al Nassr 2-1 Al Fateh in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nassr vs Al Fateh?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Al Nassr 58%, draw 21%, Al Fateh 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nassr), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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