Nacional de Football 2-1 CA River Plate — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
60%
-12.3pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.1pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+7.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.7pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY CA River Plate EU Bookmakers 20%
-3% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
2.00/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.65
+19% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
3W-2D-1L
AWAY CA River Plate
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.11.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-3 HT 0-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
27.03.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 3-0 HT 1-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
17.09.2022 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-1 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
18.04.2022 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-1 HT 0-1 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
04.12.2021 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 4-2 HT 1-1 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
21.08.2021 CA River Plate CA River Plate 2-0 HT 1-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
2-1
AWAY CA River Plate
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs CA River Plate
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football nicked a narrow win over CA River Plate 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 58% of the ball to CA River Plate's 42%, shots finished 13-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Nacional de Football and 1.00 for CA River Plate.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs CA River Plate?

Nacional de Football 2-1 CA River Plate in the Uruguay - Premier League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs CA River Plate?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 47%, draw 29%, CA River Plate 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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