Almeria 1-1 Elche — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 17 Feb 2025

Almeria
1-1 HT 0-0
Elche
📅17/02/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Almeria vs Elche Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.82
Over 2.5
40%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.5
6+ Goals
8%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 33% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.68
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
16%
4.69
X/2
10%
7.69
X/X
16%
4.55
2/1
8%
25.0
2/2
9%
5.79
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-3.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.7pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
51%
+9.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
49%
-9.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.0pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Almeria v Elche — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Elche EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +12%
1.59/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.19
+6% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
19.3 Crosses 17.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6

Almeria vs Elche Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Elche
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.84 xG 1.65
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
287 Passes 350
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
08.11.2024 Elche Elche 1-2 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
22.08.2022 Elche Elche 1-1 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS1
06.01.2022 Almeria Almeria 1-2 HT 1-0 Elche Elche İSPK
26.01.2020 Almeria Almeria 0-2 HT 0-0 Elche Elche İS2
16.11.2019 Elche Elche 1-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
12.05.2019 Almeria Almeria 5-3 HT 3-2 Elche Elche İS2

Almeria 1-1 Elche — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
1-1
AWAY Elche
0.34 xG 1.15
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
290 Passes 546
84% Pass Accuracy 90%
14 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Almeria vs Elche
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria and Elche shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Almeria at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Almeria had 37% of the ball to Elche's 63%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 0.34 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Almeria and 1.67 for Elche.

What was the final score of Almeria vs Elche?

Almeria 1-1 Elche in the Spain - 2nd Division on 17/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs Elche?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Almeria 43%, draw 30%, Elche 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Almeria), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Almeria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →