St. Johnstone 3-3 Ayr United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Challenge Cup, 17 Feb 2026

St. Johnstone
3 - 3 HT 1 - 2 AET 3-3 · Pen 4-5
Ayr United
📅17/02/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Scotland - Challenge Cup – 2025/2026

St. Johnstone vs Ayr United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
58%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
19%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.91
Over
52%
1.84
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.31
2-3
46%
1.76
4-5
24%
3.28
6+
6%
12.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
1%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
3%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome. ★ This match carries Gold/Silver/Bronze value markets — free account to see them.

St. Johnstone v Ayr United — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME St. Johnstone The Market 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ayr United The Market 23%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.62 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.21
0.85 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.94
– Attack Strength Bad
– Defense Strength Great
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
299 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

St. Johnstone vs Ayr United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Johnstone
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ayr United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 0
The Meetings
12.12.2025 Ayr United Ayr United 2-4 HT 2-0 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKCL
04.10.2025 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 0-0 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
25.07.2023 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 1-2 HT 1-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKLK
23.07.2022 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 1-0 HT 1-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKLK
08.02.2020 Ayr United Ayr United 1-2 HT 1-2 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKK
24.04.2004 Ayr United Ayr United 1-1 HT 1-0 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKCL
REVIEW St. Johnstone vs Ayr United
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

St. Johnstone and Ayr United finished all square at 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. With 6 goals, entertainment was never the problem.

This one beat our numbers. St. Johnstone carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 52%, coin-flips both.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Johnstone had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for St. Johnstone and 1.00 for Ayr United.

St. Johnstone vs Ayr United Result & Final Score

St. Johnstone 3 - 3 Ayr United in the Scotland - Challenge Cup on 17/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

St. Johnstone vs Ayr United Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Johnstone win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split St. Johnstone 58%, draw 23%, Ayr United 19%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Johnstone) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Johnstone) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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