Guangxi Baoyun 1-1 Liaoning Shenyang — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.47
Draw
29%
3.94
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.8
Over 2.5
41%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
3.13
2-3 Goals
35%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.75
6+ Goals
5%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 36% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
22%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
64%
-13.7pp
29%
Draw
22%
+6.7pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+7.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.0pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guangxi Baoyun EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Liaoning Shenyang EU Bookmakers 17%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
0.94/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/1.02
-3% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
321 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 73%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
19.8 Crosses 12.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guangxi Baoyun
1W-3D-0L
AWAY Liaoning Shenyang
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.44 xG 0.54
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
382 Passes 260
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.09.2023 Liaoning Shenyang Liaoning Shenyang 0-0 HT 0-0 Guangxi Baoyun Guangxi Baoyun ÇİN2
27.05.2023 Guangxi Baoyun Guangxi Baoyun 4-0 HT 3-0 Liaoning Shenyang Liaoning Shenyang ÇİN2
29.11.2022 Liaoning Shenyang Liaoning Shenyang 1-1 HT 0-1 Guangxi Baoyun Guangxi Baoyun ÇİN2
04.11.2022 Guangxi Baoyun Guangxi Baoyun 2-2 HT 0-0 Liaoning Shenyang Liaoning Shenyang ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guangxi Baoyun
1-1
AWAY Liaoning Shenyang
0.66 xG 0.50
72% Ball Possession 28%
18 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
524 Passes 146
85% Pass Accuracy 62%
14 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guangxi Baoyun vs Liaoning Shenyang
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guangxi Baoyun and Liaoning Shenyang shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Guangxi Baoyun at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Guangxi Baoyun had 72% of the ball to Liaoning Shenyang's 28%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 0.66 to 0.50.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Guangxi Baoyun had the better of it with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Guangxi Baoyun and 0.75 for Liaoning Shenyang.

What was the final score of Guangxi Baoyun vs Liaoning Shenyang?

Guangxi Baoyun 1-1 Liaoning Shenyang in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guangxi Baoyun vs Liaoning Shenyang?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guangxi Baoyun win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Guangxi Baoyun 50%, draw 29%, Liaoning Shenyang 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Guangxi Baoyun), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Guangxi Baoyun) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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