Luzern 2-2 Servette — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.15
Over 2.5
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.55
No
51%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.21
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.02
6+ Goals
11%
9.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.21 — our 29% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.58
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
8%
12.1
X/1
13%
5.86
X/2
11%
5.86
X/X
9%
4.97
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
20%
3.58
2/X
11%
12.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
37%
-3.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+2.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.2pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Servette EU Bookmakers 40%
-9% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +26%
1.64/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.37
-7% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
20.4 Crosses 19.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Servette
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.21 xG 1.49
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
318 Passes 295
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 32
18 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2023 Servette Servette 4-2 HT 1-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
24.09.2023 Luzern Luzern 2-0 HT 2-0 Servette Servette İSV
29.05.2023 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-1 Servette Servette İSV
12.03.2023 Servette Servette 0-3 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
09.10.2022 Servette Servette 1-1 HT 1-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
04.09.2022 Luzern Luzern 0-2 HT 0-1 Servette Servette İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
2-2
AWAY Servette
1.35 xG 2.05
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
295 Passes 258
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 32
31 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Servette
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luzern and Servette shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Luzern had 53% of the ball to Servette's 47%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 1.35 to 2.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Servette led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Luzern and 1.33 for Servette.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Servette?

Luzern 2-2 Servette in the Switzerland - Super League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Servette?

Before kick-off our model rated an Servette win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Luzern 33%, draw 28%, Servette 39%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Servette) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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