Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals
Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-0
Freiburg
AL1
1-1
HT 1-0
Bayer Leverkusen
AL1
2-3
HT 1-0
Freiburg
AL1
2-1
HT 0-0
Freiburg
AL1
2-1
HT 1-1
Bayer Leverkusen
AL1
0-0
HT 0-0
Freiburg
HAZ
Freiburg 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics
Bayer Leverkusen edged past Freiburg 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Freiburg had 32% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 68%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 0.90 to 2.30 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bayer Leverkusen's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Freiburg and 1.33 for Bayer Leverkusen.
What was the final score of Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Freiburg 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 27%, draw 24%, Bayer Leverkusen 49%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.