Hamburg 3-0 Wehen Wiesbaden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 17 Mar 2024

Hamburg
3-0 HT 1-0
Wehen Wiesbaden
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✓
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Hamburg vs Wehen Wiesbaden Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.53
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
28%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.5
2-3 Goals
33%
2.01
4-5 Goals
29%
2.66
6+ Goals
14%
6.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.87
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
15.65
X/1
18%
4.0
X/2
10%
11.65
X/X
10%
6.86
2/1
7%
19.55
2/2
11%
7.93
2/X
6%
16.0
Value flag · 1/X at 15.65 — our 9% vs market 3.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
61%
-14.4pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.6pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+9.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.3pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hamburg v Wehen Wiesbaden — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Wehen Wiesbaden EU Bookmakers 21%
-8% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
2.19/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.59
+7% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +25%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
438 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
32.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
22.6 Crosses 16.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5

Hamburg vs Wehen Wiesbaden Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Wehen Wiesbaden
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.24 xG 1.43
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
502 Passes 188
84% Pass Accuracy 66%
30 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden 1-1 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
31.05.2020 Hamburg Hamburg 3-2 HT 2-1 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden AL2
03.11.2019 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden 1-1 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
30.10.2018 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden 0-3 HT 0-1 Hamburg Hamburg AFK
04.03.2009 Hamburg Hamburg 2-1 HT 2-0 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden AFK

Hamburg 3-0 Wehen Wiesbaden — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
3-0
AWAY Wehen Wiesbaden
1.16 xG 1.09
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
388 Passes 240
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
39 Box Touches 18
27 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Wehen Wiesbaden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg cruised past Wehen Wiesbaden 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hamburg as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hamburg had 60% of the ball to Wehen Wiesbaden's 40%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.16 to 1.09.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Hamburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Hamburg and 1.00 for Wehen Wiesbaden.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Wehen Wiesbaden?

Hamburg 3-0 Wehen Wiesbaden in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Wehen Wiesbaden?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 47%, draw 25%, Wehen Wiesbaden 28%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamburg), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hamburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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