Hertha Berlin 5-2 Schalke 04 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.65
2-3 Goals
41%
1.91
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.2
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
7%
12.25
X/1
15%
5.5
X/2
12%
6.3
X/X
11%
5.32
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.0
2/2
15%
3.87
2/X
6%
12.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+0.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.6pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hertha Berlin EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Schalke 04 EU Bookmakers 37%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -19%
1.90/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.81
+77% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
331 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 77%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
17.4 Crosses 19.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hertha Berlin
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Schalke 04
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.65 xG 1.46
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
328 Passes 287
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2023 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 1-2 HT 0-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL2
14.04.2023 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 5-2 HT 2-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL1
23.10.2022 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 2-1 HT 0-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL1
12.05.2021 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 1-2 HT 1-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL1
02.01.2021 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 3-0 HT 1-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL1
04.02.2020 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 3-2 HT 0-2 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hertha Berlin
5-2
AWAY Schalke 04
3.34 xG 1.28
43% Ball Possession 57%
20 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
260 Passes 389
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hertha Berlin vs Schalke 04
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hertha Berlin cruised past Schalke 04 5-2. Half-time: 3-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hertha Berlin as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hertha Berlin had 43% of the ball to Schalke 04's 57%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 3.34 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hertha Berlin had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Hertha Berlin and 1.83 for Schalke 04.

What was the final score of Hertha Berlin vs Schalke 04?

Hertha Berlin 5-2 Schalke 04 in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hertha Berlin vs Schalke 04?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hertha Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Hertha Berlin 42%, draw 25%, Schalke 04 34%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hertha Berlin), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hertha Berlin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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