Austria Klagenfurt 0-4 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 17 Mar 2024

Austria Klagenfurt
0-4 HT 0-4
Sturm Graz
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Austria - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.13
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
49%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.74
Over 2.5
56%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.96
No
45%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2.87
2-3 Goals EV+ ✗
50%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.06
6+ Goals
12%
19.1
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 1.77 — our 50% vs market 49.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.64
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
25.5
1/X
6%
16.25
X/1
9%
9.18
X/2
14%
3.82
X/X
11%
4.61
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.27
2/X
9%
15.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 11% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
21%
+4.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
49%
Away Win
54%
-4.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
54%
-9.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
46%
+9.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.1pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Austria Klagenfurt v Sturm Graz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austria Klagenfurt EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 58%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +21%
1.13/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.07
-6% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +17%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
285 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 72%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
17.8 Crosses 18.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austria Klagenfurt
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.55 xG 2.30
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
272 Passes 361
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Austria Klagenfurt Austria Klagenfurt 0-3 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
12.08.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-0 HT 0-0 Austria Klagenfurt Austria Klagenfurt AVU
14.05.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-1 HT 2-1 Austria Klagenfurt Austria Klagenfurt AVU
16.04.2023 Austria Klagenfurt Austria Klagenfurt 0-2 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
25.02.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-2 HT 1-1 Austria Klagenfurt Austria Klagenfurt AVU
11.09.2022 Austria Klagenfurt Austria Klagenfurt 0-2 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU

Austria Klagenfurt 0-4 Sturm Graz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austria Klagenfurt
0-4
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.88 xG 1.76
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
235 Passes 437
69% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 30
25 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz swept aside Austria Klagenfurt 4-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (56%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.

On the day, Austria Klagenfurt had 40% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 60%, shots finished 6-13, expected goals 0.88 to 1.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 2.00 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?

Austria Klagenfurt 0-4 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Austria Klagenfurt 25%, draw 26%, Sturm Graz 49%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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