Salzburg 5-1 Hartberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.3
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
21%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.24
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
3.01
6+ Goals
14%
9.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.51
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
23.15
X/1
20%
3.38
X/2
5%
20.0
X/X
10%
7.31
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
10%
16.4
2/X
5%
23.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
72%
-13.5pp
20%
Draw
17%
+2.9pp
21%
Away Win
10%
+10.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.7pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salzburg EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartberg EU Bookmakers 14%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +0%
2.55/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/2.21
+20% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / -1%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
398 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 217 · 65%
32.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
20.1 Crosses 11.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salzburg
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Hartberg
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.64 xG 0.70
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
442 Passes 271
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
26 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 3-2 HT 1-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
01.11.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 1-1 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AUK
20.08.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 1-5 HT 1-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
29.10.2022 Salzburg Salzburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
06.08.2022 Hartberg Hartberg 0-2 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
04.12.2021 Salzburg Salzburg 2-1 HT 0-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salzburg
5-1
AWAY Hartberg
3.69 xG 0.87
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 7
12 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 2
464 Passes 259
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
42 Box Touches 9
23 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Salzburg vs Hartberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salzburg ran out comfortable winners over Hartberg 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Salzburg as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Salzburg had 61% of the ball to Hartberg's 39%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 3.69 to 0.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salzburg had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Salzburg and 0.83 for Hartberg.

What was the final score of Salzburg vs Hartberg?

Salzburg 5-1 Hartberg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salzburg vs Hartberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Salzburg 59%, draw 20%, Hartberg 21%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Salzburg), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Salzburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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