Turan Tovuz 1-3 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.48
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
52%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
34%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
19%
+4.4pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.4pp
52%
Away Win
58%
-5.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.2pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 62%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +9%
1.32/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.28/0.63
+26% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -25%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 411 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Turan Tovuz
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Karabağ
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.60
27% Ball Possession 73%
3 Total Shots 16
0 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
20.10.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-2 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
13.08.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 1-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
25.01.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-3 HT 1-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
09.11.2022 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 0-2 HT 0-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
20.10.2022 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 2-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
POST-MATCH Turan Tovuz vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ got the better of Turan Tovuz 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Turan Tovuz and 2.60 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Turan Tovuz vs Karabağ?

Turan Tovuz 1-3 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Turan Tovuz vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Turan Tovuz 24%, draw 25%, Karabağ 52%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
17 Mar 2024
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