Thisted 2-5 Esbjerg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 2nd Division, 17 Mar 2024

Thisted
2-5 HT 0-3
Esbjerg
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Denmark - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Thisted vs Esbjerg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
6.35
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
58%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.21
Over 2.5
62%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
4.41
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
32%
2.94
6+ Goals
12%
8.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.94 — our 32% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
4%
X/2
19%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
31%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
12%
+9.3pp
21%
Draw
18%
+3.1pp
58%
Away Win
70%
-12.4pp
38%
Under 2.5
41%
-3.8pp
62%
Over 2.5
59%
+3.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Thisted v Esbjerg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Thisted EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 75%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
0.51/1.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.18/0.92
-53% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +24%
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
243 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 445 · 83%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.6

Thisted vs Esbjerg Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Thisted
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Esbjerg
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.75
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.08.2023 Esbjerg Esbjerg 5-1 HT 3-1 Thisted Thisted DAN2
07.05.2023 Thisted Thisted 1-4 HT 0-1 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2
01.04.2023 Thisted Thisted 1-0 HT 1-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2
23.11.2022 Esbjerg Esbjerg 2-2 HT 1-0 Thisted Thisted DAN2

Thisted 2-5 Esbjerg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Thisted
2-5
AWAY Esbjerg
31% Ball Possession 69%
7 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Thisted vs Esbjerg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esbjerg ran out comfortable winners over Thisted 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Esbjerg as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Thisted had 31% of the ball to Esbjerg's 69%, shots finished 7-19.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Esbjerg led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Thisted and 2.75 for Esbjerg.

What was the final score of Thisted vs Esbjerg?

Thisted 2-5 Esbjerg in the Denmark - 2nd Division on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Thisted vs Esbjerg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Esbjerg win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Thisted 21%, draw 21%, Esbjerg 58%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Esbjerg), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Esbjerg) ✓ Over 2.5
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