Chelsea 4-2 Leicester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.49
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
26%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.74
Over 2.5
57%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.53
No
49%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.52
2-3 Goals
38%
2.13
4-5 Goals
26%
2.51
6+ Goals
13%
5.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.78
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
15.95
X/1
13%
4.06
X/2
11%
12.6
X/X
7%
7.46
2/1
7%
18.85
2/2
9%
8.18
2/X
8%
16.05
Value flag · 1/X at 15.95 — our 10% vs market 3.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
63%
-13.9pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.2pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
33%
+10.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
67%
-10.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.5pp
49%
BTTS No
39%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Leicester City EU Bookmakers 21%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +50% / +50%
1.21/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/2.00
+13% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +150%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
471 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 75%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
13.7 Crosses 14.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Leicester City
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.81 xG 1.10
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
501 Passes 331
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.03.2023 Leicester City Leicester City 1-3 HT 1-2 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
27.08.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 2-1 HT 0-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
19.05.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 1-1 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
20.11.2021 Leicester City Leicester City 0-3 HT 0-2 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
18.05.2021 Chelsea Chelsea 2-1 HT 0-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
15.05.2021 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Leicester City Leicester City FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
4-2
AWAY Leicester City
4.38 xG 0.62
59% Ball Possession 41%
26 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
497 Passes 325
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
50 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Leicester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea saw off Leicester City 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Chelsea had 59% of the ball to Leicester City's 41%, shots finished 26-5, expected goals 4.38 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Chelsea and 0.83 for Leicester City.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Leicester City?

Chelsea 4-2 Leicester City in the England - FA Cup on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Leicester City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 49%, draw 25%, Leicester City 26%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FAK More England - FA Cup
17 Mar 2024
18:30 Manchester United vs Liverpool Analysis →