Manchester United 4-3 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 17 Mar 2024

Manchester United
4-3 HT 1-2
Liverpool
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Manchester United vs Liverpool Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.5
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
42%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
3.17
Over 2.5
57%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.35
No
51%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
8.42
2-3 Goals
39%
2.36
4-5 Goals
25%
2.38
6+ Goals
14%
4.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.57
1/2
5%
17.6
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
9%
9.65
X/2
19%
4.68
X/X
10%
7.46
2/1 EV+ ✓
9%
32.0
2/2
18%
2.1
2/X
8%
13.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 32.0 — our 9% vs market 1.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
25%
+8.1pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.6pp
42%
Away Win
54%
-11.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
28%
+14.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
72%
-14.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
70%
-20.7pp
51%
BTTS No
30%
+20.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester United v Liverpool — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester United EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 58%
+58% / +58% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.77
+47% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -31%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
366 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 471 · 85%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
18.0 Crosses 17.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Manchester United vs Liverpool Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Liverpool
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.05 xG 2.24
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
265 Passes 550
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 39
10 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.12.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 0-0 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
05.03.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 7-0 HT 1-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
22.08.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 2-1 HT 1-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
12.07.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 4-0 HT 3-0 Liverpool Liverpool HAZ
19.04.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 4-0 HT 2-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
24.10.2021 Manchester United Manchester United 0-5 HT 0-4 Liverpool Liverpool İNP

Manchester United 4-3 Liverpool — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester United
4-3
AWAY Liverpool
3.93 xG 2.25
42% Ball Possession 58%
28 Total Shots 25
11 Shots on Target 11
5 Corners 8
385 Passes 612
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
58 Box Touches 53
22 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Manchester United vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester United nicked a narrow win over Liverpool 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Liverpool at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Manchester United had 42% of the ball to Liverpool's 58%, shots finished 28-25, expected goals 3.93 to 2.25 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Manchester United's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Manchester United and 2.83 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Manchester United vs Liverpool?

Manchester United 4-3 Liverpool in the England - FA Cup on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester United vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Manchester United 33%, draw 25%, Liverpool 42%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Liverpool), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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