Fukushima United 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
+0.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
44%
Away Win
43%
+0.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.5pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fukushima United EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 48%
-13% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
0.80/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.16
-34% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
314 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fukushima United
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2023 Fukushima United Fukushima United 1-1 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
16.07.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 HT 1-1 Fukushima United Fukushima United JAP3
10.09.2022 Fukushima United Fukushima United 0-1 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
17.07.2022 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 1-0 Fukushima United Fukushima United JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fukushima United
1-0
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
42% Ball Possession 58%
6 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fukushima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fukushima United squeezed past Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Matsumoto Yamaga at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Fukushima United had 42% of the ball to Matsumoto Yamaga's 58%, shots finished 6-12.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Matsumoto Yamaga led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Fukushima United and 1.00 for Matsumoto Yamaga.

What was the final score of Fukushima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Fukushima United 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga in the Japan - J3 League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fukushima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Fukushima United 30%, draw 26%, Matsumoto Yamaga 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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