FCSB 2-1 Sepsi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Romania - 1st Division, 17 Mar 2024

FCSB
2-1 HT 2-1
Sepsi
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.34
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
21%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.13
No
51%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.32 — our 26% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
25%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
70%
-12.2pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.1pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+10.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
43%
+6.0pp
51%
BTTS No
57%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FCSB EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Sepsi EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
2.14/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.58
+8% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +17%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
345 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FCSB
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Sepsi
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.30 xG 1.26
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
306 Passes 280
1 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2024 FCSB FCSB 1-0 HT 1-0 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
24.09.2023 Sepsi Sepsi 2-5 HT 0-2 FCSB FCSB ROM
08.05.2023 FCSB FCSB 3-1 HT 1-0 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
03.04.2023 Sepsi Sepsi 1-2 HT 1-2 FCSB FCSB ROM
12.03.2023 FCSB FCSB 1-0 HT 1-0 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
24.10.2022 Sepsi Sepsi 0-1 HT 0-0 FCSB FCSB ROM
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FCSB
2-1
AWAY Sepsi
61% Ball Possession 39%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FCSB vs Sepsi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FCSB edged past Sepsi 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had FCSB as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FCSB had 61% of the ball to Sepsi's 39%, shots finished 10-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FCSB had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for FCSB and 0.67 for Sepsi.

What was the final score of FCSB vs Sepsi?

FCSB 2-1 Sepsi in the Romania - 1st Division on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FCSB vs Sepsi?

Before kick-off our model rated a FCSB win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split FCSB 58%, draw 21%, Sepsi 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FCSB), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FCSB) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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