Manchester City 1-1 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 17 Apr 2024

📅17/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.43
Over Pick
59%
1.55
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.57
No
46%
2.24
Total Goals
0-1
20%
5.25
2-3
37%
1.98
4-5
30%
2.7
6+
13%
6.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.96
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.05
X/1
17%
4.08
X/2
7%
10.8
X/X
9%
6.54
2/1
11%
19.8
2/2
13%
7.37
2/X
5%
15.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.8 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid The Market 23%
+12% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +28% / +25%
2.25/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.68
+52% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / +58%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
475 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 81%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
17.7 Crosses 9.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Real Madrid
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.74 xG 1.03
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
552 Passes 381
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.04.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-3 HT 2-1 Manchester City Manchester City ŞMP
17.05.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 4-0 HT 2-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
09.05.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 1-0 Manchester City Manchester City ŞMP
04.05.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-1 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City ŞMP
26.04.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 4-3 HT 2-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
07.08.2020 Manchester City Manchester City 2-1 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
1-1
AWAY Real Madrid
2.74 xG 1.44
67% Ball Possession 33%
33 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
18 Corners 1
846 Passes 373
92% Pass Accuracy 82%
88 Box Touches 12
46 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Manchester City vs Real Madrid
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Manchester City and Real Madrid shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Manchester City at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. Small consolation: at 1.57 (roughly 64%) the price was further off than we were. The one blemish: over 2.5 goals (59%) never looked like landing.

On the day, Manchester City had 67% of the ball to Real Madrid's 33%, shots finished 33-8, expected goals 2.74 to 1.44.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Manchester City and 1.83 for Real Madrid.

Manchester City vs Real Madrid Result & Final Score

Manchester City 1-1 Real Madrid in the Champions League on 17/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Manchester City vs Real Madrid Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 52%, draw 21%, Real Madrid 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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