Bayern Münih 1-0 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 17 Apr 2024

📅17/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
1.95
Over
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.61
2-3
41%
1.81
4-5
21%
3.34
6+
11%
12.1
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.61 — our 27% vs market 22.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.65
1/2
5%
28.0
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
11%
5.63
X/2
13%
5.68
X/X
11%
4.72
2/1
9%
28.0
2/2
13%
3.69
2/X
7%
12.65
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih The Market 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal The Market 39%
+34% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
2.14/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.36
+37% / +64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +16%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
338 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 437 · 84%
35.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
20.2 Crosses 8.0
5.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Arsenal
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.78 xG 2.54
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
532 Passes 348
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.04.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 2-2 HT 1-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih ŞMP
18.07.2019 Arsenal Arsenal 2-1 HT 0-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih HAZ
19.07.2017 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-1 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal HAZ
07.03.2017 Arsenal Arsenal 1-5 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih ŞMP
15.02.2017 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 5-1 HT 1-1 Arsenal Arsenal ŞMP
04.11.2015 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 5-1 HT 3-0 Arsenal Arsenal ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
1-0
AWAY Arsenal
1.33 xG 0.39
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
416 Passes 407
87% Pass Accuracy 90%
22 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Bayern Münih vs Arsenal
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Bayern Münih shaded a tight game against Arsenal 1-0. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

The goals picture was genuinely open: 49% for over 2.5, 50% on both teams scoring. If anything the market was more convinced: the BTTS-yes price stood at 1.61, roughly 62%.

On the day, possession split 51% to 49% in Bayern Münih's favour, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.33 to 0.39.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 3.17 a game for Bayern Münih against 1.33 for Arsenal.

Bayern Münih vs Arsenal Result & Final Score

Bayern Münih 1-0 Arsenal in the Champions League on 17/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Bayern Münih vs Arsenal Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 43%, draw 26%, Arsenal 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Under 2.5
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