Al Ain 4-2 Al Hilal Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 17 Apr 2024

📅17/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.65
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
49%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.33
Over 2.5
50%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.84
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.59
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.84 — our 24% vs market 15.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
8.04
1/2
10%
20.45
1/X
5%
15.85
X/1
12%
11.35
X/2
14%
3.98
X/X
14%
6.35
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
25%
1.91
2/X
5%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
18%
+8.1pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.0pp
49%
Away Win
60%
-11.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
39%
+10.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
61%
-10.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.5pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ain EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Hilal Riyadh EU Bookmakers 64%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.08/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/0.69
-39% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +150%
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
268 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 434 · 84%
13.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
12.3 Crosses 17.1
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ain
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Al Hilal Riyadh
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.67 xG 1.86
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
246 Passes 354
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.05.2019 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 2-0 HT 1-0 Al Ain Al Ain AŞMP
05.03.2019 Al Ain Al Ain 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh AŞMP
02.04.2018 Al Ain Al Ain 2-1 HT 2-1 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh AŞMP
13.02.2018 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ain Al Ain AŞMP
11.09.2017 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 3-0 HT 2-0 Al Ain Al Ain AŞMP
21.08.2017 Al Ain Al Ain 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ain
4-2
AWAY Al Hilal Riyadh
2.80 xG 1.76
33% Ball Possession 67%
10 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 8
177 Passes 422
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 26
4 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Ain vs Al Hilal Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ain got the better of Al Hilal Riyadh 4-2. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Al Hilal Riyadh at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Al Ain had 33% of the ball to Al Hilal Riyadh's 67%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 2.80 to 1.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Hilal Riyadh led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Al Ain and 1.17 for Al Hilal Riyadh.

What was the final score of Al Ain vs Al Hilal Riyadh?

Al Ain 4-2 Al Hilal Riyadh in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 17/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ain vs Al Hilal Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Hilal Riyadh win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Al Ain 27%, draw 24%, Al Hilal Riyadh 49%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh)
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