Once Caldas 0-1 Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 17 Apr 2024

📅17/04/2024 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.99
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.48
Over 2.5
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
22%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-1.4pp
30%
Draw
31%
-1.4pp
42%
Away Win
39%
+2.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-0.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+0.7pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-5.3pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 43%
+11% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +4%
1.42/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/0.96
+14% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
247 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 78%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
16.1 Crosses 18.9
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Santa Fe
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.11 xG 0.98
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
249 Passes 300
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.11.2023 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-1 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
31.10.2022 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-1 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
15.05.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-2 HT 1-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
16.11.2021 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 HT 1-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
24.03.2021 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-0 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
25.01.2020 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-0 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
0-1
AWAY Santa Fe
0.39 xG 1.15
65% Ball Possession 35%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
380 Passes 164
82% Pass Accuracy 64%
12 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Fe squeezed past Once Caldas 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Santa Fe as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Once Caldas had 65% of the ball to Santa Fe's 35%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.39 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Once Caldas and 1.17 for Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Santa Fe?

Once Caldas 0-1 Santa Fe in the Colombia - Primera on 17/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Santa Fe win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 29%, draw 30%, Santa Fe 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santa Fe), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Santa Fe) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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