Ural 1-3 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Super Cup, 17 Apr 2024

Ural
1-3 HT 1-0
Rostov
📅17/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.34
6+ Goals
8%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.7 — our 33% vs market 31.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.72
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
13%
4.22
X/2
14%
7.46
X/X
16%
4.18
2/1
5%
28.0
2/2
8%
6.04
2/X
7%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.7pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.4pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.7pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ural EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
313 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ural
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Rostov
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.19 xG 2.04
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
212 Passes 292
65% Pass Accuracy 70%
19 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2023 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 1-0 Ural Ural RUK
29.09.2023 Rostov Rostov 2-2 HT 1-2 Ural Ural RUS
08.08.2023 Ural Ural 1-0 HT 1-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
23.04.2023 Ural Ural 1-3 HT 0-1 Rostov Rostov RUS
27.02.2023 Ural Ural 2-1 HT 1-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
22.02.2023 Rostov Rostov 1-1 HT 0-1 Ural Ural RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ural
1-3
AWAY Rostov
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ural vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rostov saw off Ural 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Ural at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ural had 55% of the ball to Rostov's 45%, shots finished 8-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ural and 1.50 for Rostov.

What was the final score of Ural vs Rostov?

Ural 1-3 Rostov in the Russia - Super Cup on 17/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ural vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ural win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ural 43%, draw 30%, Rostov 28%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ural) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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