FK Orenburg 2-4 Dinamo Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Super Cup, 17 Apr 2024

📅17/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
31%
3.54
Away
34%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
26%
2.98
6+ Goals
9%
9.09
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.47
1/2
5%
23.15
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
5%
6.77
X/2
13%
4.91
X/X
14%
5.34
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
30.0
2/2
16%
2.86
2/X
10%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 10% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.1pp
31%
Draw
25%
+5.9pp
34%
Away Win
44%
-9.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.1pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.69 xG 2.43
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
330 Passes 308
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 34
18 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.02.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 4-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg HAZ
12.11.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
03.06.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 3-0 HT 2-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
27.11.2022 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
15.10.2022 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 3-2 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
28.09.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 HT 0-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
2-4
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
58% Ball Possession 42%
24 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Dinamo Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Moscow beat FK Orenburg 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 31% / 34%) promised a tight game; Dinamo Moscow found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 58% of the ball to Dinamo Moscow's 42%, shots finished 24-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FK Orenburg and 2.00 for Dinamo Moscow.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Dinamo Moscow?

FK Orenburg 2-4 Dinamo Moscow in the Russia - Super Cup on 17/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Dinamo Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Orenburg win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 35%, draw 31%, Dinamo Moscow 34%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FK Orenburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FK Orenburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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