Olimpija Ljubljana 1-2 Maribor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 17 Apr 2024

📅17/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.56
No
51%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.28
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
12%
9.09
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.28 — our 28% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.4pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Olimpija Ljubljana EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Maribor EU Bookmakers 33%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -22%
1.40/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.84
+6% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -36%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Olimpija Ljubljana
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Maribor
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
03.12.2023 Maribor Maribor 3-1 HT 3-0 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana SLVN
16.09.2023 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 2-1 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
06.05.2023 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 2-1 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVNK
19.02.2023 Maribor Maribor 2-0 HT 2-0 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana SLVN
15.10.2022 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 1-0 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
07.08.2022 Maribor Maribor 0-2 HT 0-1 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Olimpija Ljubljana
1-2
AWAY Maribor
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maribor edged past Olimpija Ljubljana 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Olimpija Ljubljana at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Olimpija Ljubljana had 39% of the ball to Maribor's 61%, shots finished 10-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Olimpija Ljubljana had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Olimpija Ljubljana and 1.17 for Maribor.

What was the final score of Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor?

Olimpija Ljubljana 1-2 Maribor in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 17/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Olimpija Ljubljana win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Olimpija Ljubljana 46%, draw 24%, Maribor 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Olimpija Ljubljana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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