Fiorentina 2-2 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 17 May 2024

Fiorentina
2-2 HT 2-1
Napoli
📅17/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Fiorentina vs Napoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.68
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.28
6+ Goals
10%
11.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.75
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
18%
4.72
X/2
12%
7.33
X/X
12%
4.78
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.45
2/2
14%
5.15
2/X
8%
13.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.8pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fiorentina v Napoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 31%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +1%
1.65/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.25
-2% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
22.2 Crosses 15.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Fiorentina vs Napoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Napoli
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.25 xG 1.45
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
450 Passes 417
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.01.2024 Napoli Napoli 3-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTSK
08.10.2023 Napoli Napoli 1-3 HT 1-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
07.05.2023 Napoli Napoli 1-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
28.08.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-0 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
10.04.2022 Napoli Napoli 2-3 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
13.01.2022 Napoli Napoli 2-5 HT 1-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTK

Fiorentina 2-2 Napoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
2-2
AWAY Napoli
0.64 xG 1.19
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
399 Passes 206
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina and Napoli shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Fiorentina at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Fiorentina had 63% of the ball to Napoli's 37%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 0.64 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Fiorentina and 1.50 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Napoli?

Fiorentina 2-2 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 42%, draw 26%, Napoli 32%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fiorentina) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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