Karabağ 4-3 Turan Tovuz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 17 May 2024

Karabağ
4-3 HT 1-0
Turan Tovuz
📅17/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2023/2024

Karabağ vs Turan Tovuz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.28
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
18%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
14%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
74%
-12.7pp
21%
Draw
16%
+5.0pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Karabağ v Turan Tovuz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 14%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +21%
2.70/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.65
+39% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +69% / +34%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
401 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Karabağ vs Turan Tovuz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Turan Tovuz
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
73% Ball Possession 27%
16 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 2
The Meetings
17.03.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-3 HT 1-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
20.10.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-2 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
13.08.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 1-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
25.01.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-3 HT 1-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
09.11.2022 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 0-2 HT 0-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
20.10.2022 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 2-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Turan Tovuz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ squeezed past Turan Tovuz 4-3. Half-time: 1-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Karabağ and 0.83 for Turan Tovuz.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Turan Tovuz?

Karabağ 4-3 Turan Tovuz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Turan Tovuz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 61%, draw 21%, Turan Tovuz 18%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5
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