Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Puszcza Niepolomice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 May 2024

Gornik Zabrze
1-1 HT 1-0
Puszcza Niepolomice
📅17/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepolomice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
10.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.29
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
21%
4.18
X/2
12%
8.83
X/X
12%
5.27
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
9%
6.48
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
14.6
Value flag · 2/X at 14.6 — our 9% vs market 4.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.3pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.6pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+3.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.5pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gornik Zabrze v Puszcza Niepolomice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 26%
-11% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.90/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.65
-4% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +66% / -50%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 74%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
19.9 Crosses 21.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.6

Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepolomice Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gornik Zabrze
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
3.01 xG 0.64
68% Ball Possession 32%
22 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
364 Passes 140
79% Pass Accuracy 62%
41 Box Touches 13
33 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 6
The Meetings
26.11.2023 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 2-1 HT 0-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL

Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Puszcza Niepolomice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gornik Zabrze
1-1
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
1.56 xG 0.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
309 Passes 335
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepolomice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Zabrze and Puszcza Niepolomice couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Gornik Zabrze at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Gornik Zabrze had 48% of the ball to Puszcza Niepolomice's 52%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.56 to 0.33.

What was the final score of Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Puszcza Niepolomice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gornik Zabrze win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Gornik Zabrze 46%, draw 28%, Puszcza Niepolomice 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gornik Zabrze), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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