Mladost Lucani 2-0 Backa Topola — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 17 May 2024

📅17/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.34
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
54%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.23
Over 2.5
61%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
33%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
29%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
16%
+7.4pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.5pp
53%
Away Win
64%
-10.9pp
39%
Under 2.5
41%
-2.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
59%
+2.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.5pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mladost Lucani EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 69%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +17%
1.41/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/1.46
+33% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -19%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
258 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 80%
13.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
19.8 Crosses 20.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mladost Lucani
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Backa Topola
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.85 xG 1.96
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
260 Passes 381
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.03.2024 Backa Topola Backa Topola 4-1 HT 1-0 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
30.09.2023 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 1-1 HT 0-1 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
18.03.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 2-1 HT 2-0 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
16.09.2022 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 2-5 HT 1-2 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
13.02.2022 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 2-0 HT 1-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
27.08.2021 Backa Topola Backa Topola 2-1 HT 2-0 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mladost Lucani
2-0
AWAY Backa Topola
1.42 xG 2.09
33% Ball Possession 67%
10 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 7
215 Passes 536
70% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 37
9 Crosses 37
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mladost Lucani vs Backa Topola
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mladost Lucani saw off Backa Topola 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Backa Topola at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mladost Lucani had 33% of the ball to Backa Topola's 67%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 1.42 to 2.09 — on chances, Backa Topola could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Backa Topola led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Mladost Lucani and 2.33 for Backa Topola.

What was the final score of Mladost Lucani vs Backa Topola?

Mladost Lucani 2-0 Backa Topola in the Serbia - Super League on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mladost Lucani vs Backa Topola?

Before kick-off our model rated an Backa Topola win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Mladost Lucani 23%, draw 23%, Backa Topola 53%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Backa Topola) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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