Backa Topola 4-1 Mladost Lucani — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 12 Mar 2024

📅12/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.45
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
65%
-9.0pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.6pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.7pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Mladost Lucani EU Bookmakers 17%
-9% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +15%
2.05/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.82
+3% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
366 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 72%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
26.0 Crosses 15.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Backa Topola
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mladost Lucani
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.59 xG 1.03
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
323 Passes 235
73% Pass Accuracy 66%
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 1-1 HT 0-1 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
18.03.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 2-1 HT 2-0 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
16.09.2022 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 2-5 HT 1-2 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
13.02.2022 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 2-0 HT 1-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
27.08.2021 Backa Topola Backa Topola 2-1 HT 2-0 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
24.04.2021 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 2-1 HT 0-1 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Backa Topola
4-1
AWAY Mladost Lucani
2.74 xG 1.12
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
463 Passes 343
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 29
11 Crosses 29
POST-MATCH Backa Topola vs Mladost Lucani
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Backa Topola ran out comfortable winners over Mladost Lucani 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Backa Topola as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Backa Topola had 55% of the ball to Mladost Lucani's 45%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.74 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Backa Topola had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Backa Topola and 1.50 for Mladost Lucani.

What was the final score of Backa Topola vs Mladost Lucani?

Backa Topola 4-1 Mladost Lucani in the Serbia - Super League on 12/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Backa Topola vs Mladost Lucani?

Before kick-off our model rated a Backa Topola win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Backa Topola 56%, draw 26%, Mladost Lucani 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Backa Topola) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Backa Topola) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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