Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1-1 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 17 May 2025

Pari Nizhny Novgorod
1-1 HT 0-1
Fakel
📅17/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2025/2026

Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Fakel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.54
Over 2.5
48%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.13
No
48%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
5.43
6+ Goals
9%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.82
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.4
X/1
19%
4.25
X/2
8%
7.43
X/X
11%
3.95
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
31.0
2/2
15%
6.55
2/X
11%
16.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.0 — our 10% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-4.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
61%
-9.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
39%
+9.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
43%
+9.2pp
48%
BTTS No
57%
-9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pari Nizhny Novgorod v Fakel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pari Nizhny Novgorod EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 28%
-28% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -16%
0.12/2.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.40/1.11
-93% / -64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -64% / +31%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
335 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 70%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
24.0 Crosses 16.7
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Fakel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pari Nizhny Novgorod
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fakel
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.93 xG 0.96
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
256 Passes 198
67% Pass Accuracy 62%
18 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.09.2024 Fakel Fakel 0-0 HT 0-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
03.03.2024 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1-1 HT 0-1 Fakel Fakel RUS
20.08.2023 Fakel Fakel 2-0 HT 0-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
14.05.2023 Fakel Fakel 1-0 HT 0-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
03.09.2022 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 3-1 HT 0-1 Fakel Fakel RUS
27.10.2021 Fakel Fakel 0-1 HT 0-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUK
POST-MATCH Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pari Nizhny Novgorod and Fakel couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Pari Nizhny Novgorod at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Pari Nizhny Novgorod and 0.83 for Fakel.

What was the final score of Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Fakel?

Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1-1 Fakel in the Russia - Premier League on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pari Nizhny Novgorod win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Pari Nizhny Novgorod 43%, draw 27%, Fakel 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pari Nizhny Novgorod) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pari Nizhny Novgorod) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS More Russia - Premier League
17 May 2025
14:00 FK Orenburg vs Krasnodar Analysis →
16:30 Khimki vs Rubin Kazan Analysis →