Sport Recife 1-0 Mirassol FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 17 Jun 2024

📅17/06/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.54
Over 2.5
37%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.16
No
60%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
39%
2.36
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
5.12
6+ Goals
9%
31.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.36 — our 39% vs market 35.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-5.7pp
32%
Draw
28%
+3.5pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.2pp
63%
Under 2.5
61%
+1.9pp
37%
Over 2.5
39%
-1.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.7pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 24%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.22/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/0.83
-2% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +30%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 76%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
21.6 Crosses 13.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Mirassol FC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.12 xG 0.77
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
248 Passes 394
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
04.11.2023 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
10.07.2023 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-0 HT 0-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
1-0
AWAY Mirassol FC
0.69 xG 1.25
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 4
330 Passes 368
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 16
30 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Mirassol FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sport Recife nicked a narrow win over Mirassol FC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sport Recife as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Sport Recife had 49% of the ball to Mirassol FC's 51%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 0.69 to 1.25 — the balance of chances actually favoured Mirassol FC.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Mirassol FC led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sport Recife and 1.00 for Mirassol FC.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Mirassol FC?

Sport Recife 1-0 Mirassol FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 17/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Mirassol FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 45%, draw 32%, Mirassol FC 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sport Recife), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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