Juventude 1-1 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Jul 2024

Juventude
1-1 HT 1-1
Atletico Mineiro
📅17/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Juventude vs Atletico Mineiro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.5
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
42%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.11
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.76
6+ Goals
8%
16.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 29% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.0
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
10%
14.05
X/1
11%
7.83
X/2
15%
4.33
X/X
12%
4.48
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.6
2/X
7%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
25%
+4.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
42%
Away Win
48%
-6.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.6pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Juventude v Atletico Mineiro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Juventude EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 52%
+8% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +12%
1.22/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.11
+2% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -8%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
242 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 82%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
26.0 Crosses 21.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Juventude vs Atletico Mineiro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Juventude
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.48 xG 2.10
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
342 Passes 491
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-0 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
02.07.2022 Juventude Juventude 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
21.11.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
08.08.2021 Juventude Juventude 1-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
11.11.2007 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 4-1 HT 1-1 Juventude Juventude BR1
05.08.2007 Juventude Juventude 1-2 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1

Juventude 1-1 Atletico Mineiro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Juventude
1-1
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.88 xG 1.77
27% Ball Possession 73%
8 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 8
174 Passes 603
71% Pass Accuracy 89%
7 Box Touches 36
12 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Juventude vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventude and Atletico Mineiro couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Mineiro at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Juventude had 27% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 73%, shots finished 8-20, expected goals 0.88 to 1.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Juventude and 2.17 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Juventude vs Atletico Mineiro?

Juventude 1-1 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Juventude vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Juventude 30%, draw 28%, Atletico Mineiro 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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