Mainz 05 4-1 Kaiserslautern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 17 Jul 2026

Mainz 05
4-1 HT 3-0
Kaiserslautern
📅17/07/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2026

Mainz 05 vs Kaiserslautern Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.59
Over 2.5
60%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.31
No
39%
3.14
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
8.25
2-3 Goals
37%
2.33
4-5 Goals
29%
2.25
6+ Goals
14%
3.57
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.3pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
24%
+16.1pp
60%
Over 2.5
76%
-16.1pp
61%
BTTS Yes
72%
-11.0pp
39%
BTTS No
28%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mainz 05 v Kaiserslautern — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Kaiserslautern EU Bookmakers 32%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +60% / +60%
1.52/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.00
-10% / +66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / –
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.0 Yellow Cards –

Mainz 05 vs Kaiserslautern Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Kaiserslautern
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.18 xG 1.63
67% Ball Possession 33%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
443 Passes 168
85% Pass Accuracy 69%
42 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 5
The Meetings
10.08.2019 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 2-0 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AFK
19.07.2014 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 1-2 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 HAZ
25.02.2012 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 4-0 HT 3-0 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern AL1
17.09.2011 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 3-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
29.01.2011 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 0-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
12.09.2010 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-1 HT 0-1 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern AL1
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Kaiserslautern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 cruised past Kaiserslautern 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mainz 05 as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.17 for Kaiserslautern.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Kaiserslautern?

Mainz 05 4-1 Kaiserslautern in the Friendlies on 17/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Kaiserslautern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 48%, draw 25%, Kaiserslautern 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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