Ayr United 3-2 Hamilton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 17 Aug 2024

Ayr United
3-2 HT 1-2
Hamilton
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Scotland - Championship – 2024/2025

Ayr United vs Hamilton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.06
6+ Goals
9%
9.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.11 — our 29% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.0
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.3
X/1
17%
3.91
X/2
9%
10.7
X/X
14%
5.81
2/1
6%
21.45
2/2
7%
7.96
2/X
5%
15.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
59%
-6.0pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.5pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.0pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ayr United v Hamilton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ayr United EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamilton EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
2.25/0.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.54
+21% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
290 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 68%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Ayr United vs Hamilton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ayr United
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Hamilton
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
The Meetings
03.08.2024 Hamilton Hamilton 0-2 HT 0-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
18.03.2023 Hamilton Hamilton 0-2 HT 0-2 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
07.01.2023 Ayr United Ayr United 1-0 HT 1-0 Hamilton Hamilton İKCL
11.11.2022 Hamilton Hamilton 2-3 HT 0-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
13.08.2022 Ayr United Ayr United 2-2 HT 1-1 Hamilton Hamilton İKCL
01.04.2022 Ayr United Ayr United 1-1 HT 0-1 Hamilton Hamilton İKCL
POST-MATCH Ayr United vs Hamilton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ayr United nicked a narrow win over Hamilton 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ayr United as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ayr United had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Ayr United and 0.83 for Hamilton.

What was the final score of Ayr United vs Hamilton?

Ayr United 3-2 Hamilton in the Scotland - Championship on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ayr United vs Hamilton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ayr United win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Ayr United 53%, draw 25%, Hamilton 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ayr United), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ayr United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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