Eibar 1-0 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.92
Draw
21%
3.28
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.92
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.0
6+ Goals
9%
18.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 31% vs market 28.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.69
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.33
X/2
8%
7.52
X/X
10%
4.33
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
10%
5.87
2/X
6%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
48%
+5.1pp
21%
Draw
27%
-5.4pp
25%
Away Win
25%
+0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.3pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eibar EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +6%
1.38/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.28
+12% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 73%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
23.8 Crosses 17.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eibar
1W-1D-4L
AWAY CD Castellon
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
14.06.2009 CD Castellon CD Castellon 4-0 HT 3-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
18.01.2009 Eibar Eibar 0-1 HT 0-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
20.04.2008 Eibar Eibar 1-2 HT 0-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
18.11.2007 CD Castellon CD Castellon 0-0 HT 0-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
26.03.2006 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-0 HT 1-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
23.10.2005 Eibar Eibar 2-0 HT 1-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eibar
1-0
AWAY CD Castellon
0.68 xG 1.09
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
137 Passes 365
55% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 41
15 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Eibar vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eibar nicked a narrow win over CD Castellon 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Eibar as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Eibar had 36% of the ball to CD Castellon's 64%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.68 to 1.09 — on chances, CD Castellon could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CD Castellon led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Eibar and 1.50 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Eibar vs CD Castellon?

Eibar 1-0 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eibar vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eibar win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Eibar 53%, draw 21%, CD Castellon 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Eibar), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Eibar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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