Homburg 1-1 Hessen Kassel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.8
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
52%
-10.9pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.8pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Homburg EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Hessen Kassel EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -5%
1.74/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.77
-4% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Homburg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Hessen Kassel
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2024 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 2-1 HT 2-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
21.10.2023 Homburg Homburg 2-1 HT 1-1 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
25.03.2023 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 2-0 HT 1-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
13.09.2022 Homburg Homburg 3-2 HT 0-2 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
12.02.2022 Homburg Homburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
04.09.2021 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 3-0 HT 1-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Homburg vs Hessen Kassel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Homburg and Hessen Kassel shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Homburg at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hessen Kassel led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Homburg and 1.83 for Hessen Kassel.

What was the final score of Homburg vs Hessen Kassel?

Homburg 1-1 Hessen Kassel in the Germany - Regional League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Homburg vs Hessen Kassel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Homburg 41%, draw 28%, Hessen Kassel 31%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Homburg) ✗ Over 2.5
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