Hessen Kassel 2-1 Homburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.17
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
40%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
28%
+2.3pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.2pp
40%
Away Win
46%
-6.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.4pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hessen Kassel EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Homburg EU Bookmakers 50%
+24% / +40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +11%
1.51/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.21
+11% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +5%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
302 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hessen Kassel
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Homburg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.10.2023 Homburg Homburg 2-1 HT 1-1 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
25.03.2023 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 2-0 HT 1-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
13.09.2022 Homburg Homburg 3-2 HT 0-2 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
12.02.2022 Homburg Homburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
04.09.2021 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 3-0 HT 1-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
06.03.2021 Homburg Homburg 1-2 HT 0-2 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hessen Kassel
2-1
AWAY Homburg
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hessen Kassel vs Homburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hessen Kassel edged past Homburg 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 30% / 30% / 40% — and on the day Hessen Kassel made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Hessen Kassel had 40% of the ball to Homburg's 60%, shots finished 9-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hessen Kassel had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Hessen Kassel and 1.17 for Homburg.

What was the final score of Hessen Kassel vs Homburg?

Hessen Kassel 2-1 Homburg in the Germany - Regional League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hessen Kassel vs Homburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Hessen Kassel 30%, draw 30%, Homburg 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Homburg), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Homburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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