Caen 0-2 Paris FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.27
6+ Goals
8%
21.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 32% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.94
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
13%
5.41
X/2
13%
5.27
X/X
14%
4.14
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
15%
3.8
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.5pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-2.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.8pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caen EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Paris FC EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
1.36/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.01
+16% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 79%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
21.1 Crosses 17.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Paris FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.11 xG 1.19
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
338 Passes 472
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Caen Caen 0-1 HT 0-0 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
05.08.2023 Paris FC Paris FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Caen Caen FR2
15.04.2023 Caen Caen 3-1 HT 2-0 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
27.08.2022 Paris FC Paris FC 1-1 HT 0-1 Caen Caen FR2
19.04.2022 Paris FC Paris FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
20.11.2021 Caen Caen 0-1 HT 0-0 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caen
0-2
AWAY Paris FC
1.26 xG 1.87
37% Ball Possession 63%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
265 Passes 521
82% Pass Accuracy 91%
28 Box Touches 28
25 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Caen vs Paris FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paris FC beat Caen 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Paris FC found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Caen had 37% of the ball to Paris FC's 63%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.26 to 1.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paris FC led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Caen and 0.83 for Paris FC.

What was the final score of Caen vs Paris FC?

Caen 0-2 Paris FC in the France - Ligue 2 on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caen vs Paris FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Caen 38%, draw 28%, Paris FC 34%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Caen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caen) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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