Caen 0-1 Paris FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.6
Over 2.5
37%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
37%
2.5
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.74
6+ Goals
8%
26.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.5 — our 37% vs market 33.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.42
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
13%
4.84
X/2
12%
6.09
X/X
18%
3.8
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
13%
4.72
2/X
8%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-2.7pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.4pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.4pp
63%
Under 2.5
59%
+4.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
41%
-4.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.7pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caen EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Paris FC EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -10%
1.47/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.06
+29% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
339 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
20.3 Crosses 16.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Paris FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.25 xG 1.16
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
348 Passes 464
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.08.2023 Paris FC Paris FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Caen Caen FR2
15.04.2023 Caen Caen 3-1 HT 2-0 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
27.08.2022 Paris FC Paris FC 1-1 HT 0-1 Caen Caen FR2
19.04.2022 Paris FC Paris FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
20.11.2021 Caen Caen 0-1 HT 0-0 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
27.02.2021 Caen Caen 0-2 HT 0-1 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caen
0-1
AWAY Paris FC
0.92 xG 1.40
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
315 Passes 464
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Caen vs Paris FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paris FC nicked a narrow win over Caen 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 32% / 31% — and on the day Paris FC made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Caen had 42% of the ball to Paris FC's 58%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 0.92 to 1.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paris FC led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Caen and 1.00 for Paris FC.

What was the final score of Caen vs Paris FC?

Caen 0-1 Paris FC in the France - Ligue 2 on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caen vs Paris FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Caen 37%, draw 32%, Paris FC 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Caen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caen) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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