Dunkerque 1-0 Pau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
35%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.77
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.21
6+ Goals
11%
20.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.2
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.05
X/1
12%
4.81
X/2
11%
6.46
X/X
17%
4.03
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
16%
4.87
2/X
9%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
42%
-7.5pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.3pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+6.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.6pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Pau EU Bookmakers 32%
-11% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +11%
0.95/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.32
-29% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
330 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 75%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
20.5 Crosses 17.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dunkerque
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Pau
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.91 xG 1.62
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
283 Passes 365
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.12.2023 Pau Pau 1-1 HT 1-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
12.03.2022 Dunkerque Dunkerque 1-0 HT 1-0 Pau Pau FR2
24.09.2021 Pau Pau 1-2 HT 0-2 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
20.03.2021 Pau Pau 3-1 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
28.11.2020 Dunkerque Dunkerque 2-2 HT 2-1 Pau Pau FR2
28.02.2020 Pau Pau 2-0 HT 1-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dunkerque
1-0
AWAY Pau
1.31 xG 0.17
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
472 Passes 306
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 7
23 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dunkerque vs Pau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dunkerque squeezed past Pau 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; Dunkerque found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Dunkerque had 58% of the ball to Pau's 42%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 1.31 to 0.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Dunkerque and 1.50 for Pau.

What was the final score of Dunkerque vs Pau?

Dunkerque 1-0 Pau in the France - Ligue 2 on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunkerque vs Pau?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pau win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Dunkerque 34%, draw 30%, Pau 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Pau), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pau) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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