Puebla 1-2 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 17 Aug 2024

Puebla
1-2 HT 0-1
Monterrey
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Puebla vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.46
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
46%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.25
6+ Goals
11%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 27% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
10%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
26%
+0.8pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.1pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-3.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.5pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 54%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +10%
1.21/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.07
+11% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +34%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 81%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
18.1 Crosses 18.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

Puebla vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Monterrey
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.68 xG 2.05
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
265 Passes 305
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.01.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 2-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
04.10.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 1-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
28.01.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-2 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
27.07.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 1-0 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
19.02.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
26.07.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 1-1 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK

Puebla 1-2 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
1-2
AWAY Monterrey
0.99 xG 1.40
29% Ball Possession 71%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
240 Passes 685
79% Pass Accuracy 91%
16 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey squeezed past Puebla 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monterrey as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Puebla had 29% of the ball to Monterrey's 71%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.99 to 1.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Puebla and 1.17 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Monterrey?

Puebla 1-2 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Puebla 26%, draw 28%, Monterrey 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✓ Over 2.5
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