Monterrey 2-0 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 14 Jan 2024

Monterrey
2-0 HT 0-0
Puebla
📅14/01/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Monterrey vs Puebla Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.33
Over 2.5
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.4
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.86
6+ Goals
12%
8.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.71
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
18.25
X/1
10%
3.6
X/2
7%
13.95
X/X
10%
6.75
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.1
2/2
8%
10.6
2/X
6%
18.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.1 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
68%
-11.4pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.1pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+8.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-8.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.6pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monterrey v Puebla — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 16%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +21%
2.01/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/2.07
+3% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
370 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 77%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
20.3 Crosses 14.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Monterrey vs Puebla Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Puebla
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.88 xG 0.62
52% Ball Possession 48%
20 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
289 Passes 265
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.10.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 1-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
28.01.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-2 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
27.07.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 1-0 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
19.02.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
26.07.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 1-1 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
03.02.2021 Puebla Puebla 0-0 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK

Monterrey 2-0 Puebla — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
2-0
AWAY Puebla
2.18 xG 0.76
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
406 Passes 315
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
35 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 28
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey saw off Puebla 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Monterrey as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Monterrey had 54% of the ball to Puebla's 46%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 2.18 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Monterrey and 0.67 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs Puebla?

Monterrey 2-0 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 57%, draw 23%, Puebla 20%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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