Pumas UNAM 1-0 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 14 Jan 2024

📅14/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
19%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.75
No
57%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.79
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.14
6+ Goals
12%
10.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.79 — our 28% vs market 20.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.01
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
9%
15.5
X/1
21%
3.83
X/2
5%
10.45
X/X
7%
5.64
2/1
9%
21.75
2/2
9%
7.96
2/X
8%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
58%
-0.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
19%
Away Win
19%
-0.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.9pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 22%
-15% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -17%
1.75/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.39
-11% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
337 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
23.0 Crosses 16.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.62 xG 1.17
57% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
318 Passes 237
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 4-1 HT 3-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
08.01.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-1 HT 0-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
01.10.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 3-1 HT 2-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
03.04.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-1 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
17.10.2021 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
13.03.2021 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
1-0
AWAY FC Juarez
1.32 xG 0.57
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
350 Passes 246
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM nicked a narrow win over FC Juarez 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pumas UNAM as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 57% of the ball to FC Juarez's 43%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.32 to 0.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.50 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs FC Juarez?

Pumas UNAM 1-0 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 57%, draw 24%, FC Juarez 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pumas UNAM), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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