Cruz Azul 0-1 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 14 Jan 2024

Cruz Azul
0-1 HT 0-0
Pachuca
📅14/01/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Cruz Azul vs Pachuca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.48
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.33
6+ Goals
11%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 28% vs market 22.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.95
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
18%
4.77
X/2
11%
6.56
X/X
10%
4.8
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
12%
4.6
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.0pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cruz Azul v Pachuca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +17%
1.43/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.51
-14% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
325 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 79%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
18.6 Crosses 16.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Cruz Azul vs Pachuca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Pachuca
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.11 xG 1.04
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
315 Passes 301
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.08.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
02.04.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 0-2 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
10.07.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-2 HT 0-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
20.03.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
30.08.2021 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-1 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
23.05.2021 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK

Cruz Azul 0-1 Pachuca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
0-1
AWAY Pachuca
1.40 xG 1.37
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
357 Passes 228
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
16 Box Touches 19
37 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca squeezed past Cruz Azul 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cruz Azul at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 59% of the ball to Pachuca's 41%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.40 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cruz Azul and 0.83 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Pachuca?

Cruz Azul 0-1 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 46%, draw 25%, Pachuca 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Cruz Azul) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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