Ajax II 1-2 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 17 Sep 2024

Ajax II
1 - 2 HT 1 - 0
AZ Alkmaar II
📅17/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

Ajax II vs AZ Alkmaar II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.09
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
30%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under
27%
2.96
Over Pick
73%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
68%
1.34
No
32%
2.99
Total Goals
0-1
12%
7.02
2-3
37%
2.19
4-5
34%
2.46
6+
17%
4.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.86
1/2
2%
24.85
1/X
5%
12.15
X/1
15%
5.59
X/2
11%
6.95
X/X
12%
6.34
2/1 ✗
4%
20.9
2/2
17%
3.86
2/X
6%
12.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.9 — our 4% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Ajax II v AZ Alkmaar II — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Ajax II The Market 48%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II The Market 37%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Strong
2.07 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.42
1.32 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.91
Strong Attack Strength Strong
Average Defense Strength Weak
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
350 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 77%
27 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21
12 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2

Ajax II vs AZ Alkmaar II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax II
1W-2D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.04 xG 1.29
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
463 Passes 306
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.05.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 1-4 HT 0-2 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
18.09.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 5-2 HT 2-2 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
12.05.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
17.11.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 1-1 HT 0-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
04.02.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 2-1 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
18.10.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 1-1 HT 1-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2

Ajax II 1-2 AZ Alkmaar II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax II
1 - 2
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.19 xG 2.56
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 11
209 Passes 446
74% Pass Accuracy 90%
29 Box Touches 40
11 Crosses 10
6 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Ajax II vs AZ Alkmaar II
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

AZ Alkmaar II squeezed past Ajax II 2-1 on their travels. From 1-0 down at the break, the game flipped completely after half-time.

A gentle 47% lean on Ajax II didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (73%), both teams to score (68%), and both reads landed as well.

By the numbers, Ajax II had 37% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 63%, shots finished 11-24, expected goals 1.19 to 2.56 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold AZ Alkmaar II's control.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar II led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ajax II and 2.33 for AZ Alkmaar II.

Ajax II vs AZ Alkmaar II Result & Final Score

Ajax II 1 - 2 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 17/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Ajax II vs AZ Alkmaar II Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax II win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Ajax II 47%, draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar II 30%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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