Ajax II 1-4 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 10 May 2024

📅10/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
33%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.96
Over 2.5
56%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.33
No
42%
3.05
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.4
2-3 Goals
42%
2.12
4-5 Goals
25%
2.52
6+ Goals
12%
5.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.12
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
24.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
10%
5.74
X/2
9%
6.23
X/X
12%
6.4
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
13%
3.49
2/X
7%
12.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.0 — our 11% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
39%
+2.7pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.2pp
33%
Away Win
38%
-5.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
30%
+13.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
70%
-13.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
71%
-13.0pp
42%
BTTS No
29%
+12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax II EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 43%
+12% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.48/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/1.78
+43% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
382 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
10.9 Crosses 11.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax II
1W-2D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.00 xG 1.58
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
484 Passes 311
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.09.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 5-2 HT 2-2 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
12.05.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
17.11.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 1-1 HT 0-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
04.02.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 2-1 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
18.10.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 1-1 HT 1-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
15.03.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax II
1-4
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.02 xG 0.91
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
311 Passes 332
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 33
6 Crosses 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ajax II vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II cruised past Ajax II 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ajax II at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ajax II had 48% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 52%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.02 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar II led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ajax II and 2.00 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Ajax II vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Ajax II 1-4 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax II vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax II win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ajax II 42%, draw 26%, AZ Alkmaar II 33%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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